How Big is Padel Going to Be? A 2, 5 and 10-Year Forecast

You keep hearing about padel.
It’s on your feed. Your mates are playing it. Pro athletes are investing in clubs. Luxury venues are opening in every major city.

So naturally, you’re wondering: Is this real? Or is it just another overhyped trend that'll fade out once the novelty wears off?
And here’s the bigger question on your mind: If padel is going to be huge, how do you get in now – before it peaks?

That’s where things get interesting.

Padel is at a tipping point. Numbers are exploding, infrastructure is forming, and Olympic inclusion is closer than ever, potentially taking the sport to a new level of global credibility.

In this article, you’ll get a clear, no-fluff look at where padel is heading, in the next 2 years, 5 years, and 10 years. You’ll see where the money’s going, who’s backing the sport, what the Olympic timeline looks like, and where the biggest opportunities (and risks) are.

This isn’t just about hype. It’s about timing, and making smart moves before the rest of the world catches on.

Padel Right Now: A Global Snapshot

Padel isn’t emerging. It’s already arrived — and it’s growing faster than almost any other sport in the world.

As of 2025, there are over 30 million padel players globally, with more than 70 countries actively playing. It’s already the second-most played sport in Spain, behind only football. Italy, Sweden, the UAE, and Argentina are booming. Even traditionally tennis-dominant countries like the UK and France are seeing rapid adoption, with thousands of new courts being built.

Growth by the numbers:

Global player base: Estimated 30M+ and growing
Annual growth rate: 20–25% in many markets
Court expansion: Some regions are seeing double-digit % growth in courts every 12 months
Top countries (by popularity): Spain, Italy, Sweden, Argentina, France, UAE, and now the UK
Top growth regions (2025): Middle East, UK, Germany, and parts of North America

To understand this rapid ascent, consider why padel’s popularity has surged so quickly.

Padel hits the sweet spot:

It’s easy to learn. Unlike tennis, you don’t need months of lessons to enjoy it.
It’s social. You play 2v2, making it perfect for groups.
It’s less physically demanding than tennis or squash, so it appeals to a broader age range.
It’s content-friendly. It looks great on video, which helps it go viral online.

Most importantly, people aren’t just trying padel — they keep playing. Clubs report high retention, with members playing multiple times per week. This is a sport that lasts.

Backing from established names has also fueled the sport’s rise.

Zlatan Ibrahimović, David Beckham, Andy Murray, and other athletes have backed padel venues or invested in clubs.
LVMH and luxury brands are hosting padel events and private clubs.
Qatar Sports Investments launched Premier Padel, the sport’s official global tour — with serious money behind it.
Adidas, Wilson, Babolat, and Nike are all now manufacturing padel gear.

This isn’t just a grassroots movement — it’s a full-court press from sports, fashion, business, and media.

Another pivotal development: Olympic inclusion could reshape padel’s future.

If padel makes it to the Olympics, everything changes.

Suddenly, it’s not just a fun, fast-growing sport — it becomes a global institution. Olympic inclusion would bring visibility, funding, and legitimacy that no marketing campaign could match.

So… will it happen?

Here’s where things stand right now:

Padel is officially recognised by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) — a key first step. It’s governed internationally by the International Padel Federation (FIP), which has been aggressively pushing for Olympic inclusion, with backing from Qatar Sports Investments and other powerful stakeholders.

In 2023, the sport was included in the European Games, a crucial milestone in proving it can be played at a high level on a large international stage. The FIP has also increased the number of participating countries to meet the Olympic requirement of global representation.

The next big target for Olympic inclusion is the Los Angeles 2028 Games.

Padel applied for inclusion in Los Angeles 2028 but didn’t make the final cut. The IOC instead selected sports such as cricket and flag football, which have mass appeal in key regions like the US and India.

But here's the play:
Now, the FIP is focusing on the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games. With continuing momentum, their aim is for padel to be added, as it is growing on every continent.

It’s now played in over 100 countries — hitting the IOC’s global threshold.
It's spectator-friendly and made for broadcasting.
It's gender inclusive and accessible to different age groups.
And crucially, there’s money and momentum behind it.

Why this matters to you:

If padel becomes an Olympic sport, it won’t just grow — it’ll explode.

National federations will fund it. Governments will build courts. TV broadcasters will pay attention. And the value of clubs, events, and padel-related businesses will likely skyrocket.

So while it’s not in the Olympics yet, the trajectory is clear: padel isn’t just hoping for inclusion — it’s building towards it.

Year 2 Forecast: Short-Term Explosion

The next 24 months are going to be loud for padel.

You’ll see more courts, clubs, influencers, pro athletes, and a surge of new players. The sport’s growth phase is still rapid and nowhere near critical mass in many countries.

Here's what you can expect in the next two years:

1. A surge in court construction

Governments, private developers, and gym chains are racing to build courts. In the UK alone, padel courts have more than tripled since 2022, and industry analysts predict another 300+ courts by 2026.

In the Middle East, luxury resorts and wellness clubs are adding padel as a premium experience. In Germany and the Netherlands, national federations are getting involved, accelerating rollout.

2. Explosion of pay-to-play venues

Operators are setting up urban padel clubs in converted warehouses, retail parks, and rooftop spaces. Many are going the “boutique fitness” route, offering memberships, coaching, and community-driven experiences. Think of it like the Soho House of sport.

3. More pro tours, more prize money

The Premier Padel Tour, backed by Qatar Sports Investments, is expanding globally. Prize money is increasing. Player salaries are improving. Brands are sponsoring tournaments — not just in Spain or Italy, but in places like the UAE, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia.

Expect more international tournaments with slick production and global broadcast deals.

4. Social media driving visibility

One of the biggest short-term accelerators? Content.

Padel looks great on camera. Trick shots, rallies off the glass, fast reactions — it’s naturally viral. TikTok and Instagram are already fuelling interest, with creators posting highlight reels and tutorials. Expect this to scale fast.

5. New demographics entering the game

It’s no longer just trendy millennials in Madrid. In 2025 and beyond, you’ll see:

Juniors — with youth academies popping up
Seniors — choosing padel as a lower-impact sport than tennis
Women — a rapidly growing segment thanks to inclusive club environments.
Corporate teams — companies booking padel sessions as part of wellness programmes

Bottom line:
Padel is still in the early innings. The next 2 years will be about accessibility, visibility, and scale. If you're looking for a sign to get involved — either as a player or entrepreneur — this is it.

Year 5 Forecast: Consolidation & Commercialisation

By 2030, padel won’t just be a fast-growing sport — it’ll be a fully commercialised industry.

In five years, the gold rush will settle. Rapid expansion will give way to stronger organisations, professional leagues, big brand partnerships, and a clearer split between casual and competitive players.

Here’s what the next phase of padel’s evolution looks like:

1. Clubs get serious – and selective

The boom in casual court-building will slow. In its place? Premium, purpose-built venues with advanced booking systems, coaching programmes, retail shops, and hospitality offerings.

Think golf club energy, but for padel.

Expect consolidation as bigger players acquire smaller independents. Chains like Padel Social Club (UK), Padel Haus (US), and Matcha (Middle East) are already scaling, and they’re aiming for brand loyalty, not just court bookings.

2. A commercial ecosystem emerges

By year five, padel will have its full suite of industry pillars:

Apparel and equipment brands competing for market share
Player sponsorships and endorsement deals
Pro leagues with international circuits and clear rankings
Media rights are becoming a major revenue stream.
Tech integrations: smart court analytics, digital scoring, streaming-friendly cameras

In short, padel stops being a sport people play and becomes an industry people invest in.

3. Olympic momentum intensifies

Even if padel doesn’t debut at Los Angeles 2028, the push for Olympic status will intensify for Brisbane 2032, making those Games the next realistic target for official inclusion.

By 2030, expect:

Full gender parity at the pro level
100+ national federations actively competing
Junior circuits feeding into elite leagues
A serious Olympic bid backed by governments and global sponsors

This period is when the Olympics stop being a dream and start feeling inevitable.

4. The business model shifts

Right now, most padel clubs make money from court rentals. But over the next five years, you’ll see a shift toward:

Memberships (recurring revenue)
Franchising models
Branded tournaments
Retail (rackets, gear, fashion)
Events, coaching, and content

Smart operators will move from just running courts to building communities.

Bottom line:
In five years, padel will move from novelty to infrastructure. If you're a developer, investor or brand, this is the phase where you’ll either carve out your space — or get priced out by the players who already did.

Year 10 Forecast: Global Maturity or Market Correction?

By 2035, we’ll know whether padel became a global mainstay — or hit its ceiling.

Ten years is long enough to separate hype from reality. And while the signs today are overwhelmingly positive, no sport is immune to saturation, over-commercialisation, or cultural limits. This is where things get interesting, and a bit more nuanced.

Scenario 1: Global Maturity

In this future, padel is fully embedded in the global sports landscape.
It’s in the Olympics (Brisbane 2032), backed by national federations, with wide participation across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America — and real traction in the US.

Key signs of maturity:

Padel courts are as common as tennis courts in major cities.
A globally recognised pro league exists (think F1 or UFC for padel)
Major sporting goods brands have padel divisions.
Media rights are driving revenue.
Youth development pipelines are in place, feeding talent into the pro system.
It's accepted as a legitimate sport — not just a fun social activity.

This version of 2035 is Padel’s golden age, and it's entirely possible.

Scenario 2: Market Correction

In this future, the growth slows. Padel still exists, still has players, still has clubs — but it’s not exploding anymore. A few things could cause this:

Oversaturation, too many courts, not enough demand
Lack of cultural fit in key markets (e.g., the US, where it hasn’t taken off as fast)
Failing to secure Olympic status, missing out on the legitimacy boost
Weak pro ecosystem – without exciting televised matches or famous players, attention wanes.
Low retention in some markets – people try it, but don’t stick with it

In this world, padel becomes more like squash: loved by a passionate minority, but not a mass-market powerhouse.

The truth? Probably somewhere in between.

By 2035, padel is unlikely to dominate the world — but it’s also not going away. The most likely outcome is a strong global sport with:

Deep roots in Europe, LATAM, and the Middle East
Growing infrastructure in Asia and Australia
Patchy but improving adoption in North America
A stable commercial ecosystem
And most importantly, a generation of players who grew up with it

Whether that makes padel “the next tennis” or “the next squash” depends on what happens in the next 3–5 years — especially around Olympic inclusion, US market penetration, and pro league development.

Bottom line:
Ten years from now, padel will either be a sport that changed the global landscape — or a case study in what happens when you grow fast, but fail to scale smart.

Which side of that future do we land on? That part’s still up for grabs.

Where the Smart Money is Going

If you're wondering whether padel has legs, follow the money.

The past few years have seen a wave of high-profile investments from celebrities, athletes, private equity, real estate developers, and even sovereign wealth funds. This isn’t about throwing money at a passing fad — it’s about building infrastructure before mass adoption hits.

Let’s break down where the smart money is flowing:

1. Athletes and Celebrities Are All In

Big names bring visibility, but also credibility — and they’re not just endorsing padel, they’re owning it.

Zlatan Ibrahimović owns multiple padel centres in Sweden.
Andy Murray has invested in a padel company in the UK.
David Beckham and Lionel Messi have been linked to padel endorsements and club partnerships.
Virat Kohli, Sergio Ramos, and Piqué have all jumped in.

They’re not just in it for social capital — they see it as the next lifestyle sport.

2. Private Equity and Venture Capital Are Moving Early

Investors who missed the fitness boom (think SoulCycle, F45, or Peloton) are seeing padel as the next play.

UK-based operators like Game4Padel have raised millions in early funding rounds.
PadelHaus in NYC is backed by private investors aiming to turn padel into a boutique luxury brand.
In the Middle East, Matcha Club and PADELX have attracted capital from hospitality groups and investors with wellness-focused portfolios.
Qatar Sports Investments (owners of PSG) is backing Premier Padel, trying to make it the dominant global tour.

Early-stage investors are treating padel like a crossover between fitness, real estate, and content.

3. Real Estate Developers See It as an Amenity Asset

Padel courts are now being included in:

High-end residential complexes
Boutique hotels and resorts
Mixed-use commercial spaces
Luxury fitness clubs

Why? Because they’re:

Smaller than tennis courts
Visually appealing
Social and community-focused
Easy to monetise with app-based booking and memberships

In dense cities, developers are treating padel like the next rooftop yoga — an experience-first feature that drives foot traffic and engagement.

4. Brands Are Getting In on the Ground Floor

Major sportswear companies like Adidas, Wilson, Head, and Babolat are now investing heavily in padel-specific gear.

Even lifestyle brands are testing the waters — launching co-branded apparel, sponsoring clubs, and hosting influencer-led tournaments.

Expect more collaborations between padel clubs and:

Athleisure brands
Energy drinks
Tech start-ups
Health and wellness brands

What This Tells You

Smart money flows where people:

See scalable infrastructure
Know that consumer behaviour is shifting.
Want to own a slice of culture before it goes mainstream.

Padel checks all three boxes.

Bottom line:
The smartest money isn’t just betting on padel as a sport — they’re building business models around it. If you’re thinking about getting in, you're not early… but you're not late either.

Risks and Roadblocks

Padel’s future looks bright — but it’s not guaranteed.

Like any fast-growing market, it faces risks. Not just from oversaturation or economic shifts, but from questions about cultural fit, infrastructure, and long-term engagement. If you’re thinking of investing, building, or even basing a business on padel, you need to understand what could go wrong.

Let’s break down the key risks:

1. Oversaturation

This is the big one.

In markets like Spain, Sweden, and parts of the UAE, courts have been popping up everywhere — sometimes faster than demand. Without a strategy to attract and retain players, some clubs could face:

Underused courts
Poor customer experience
Price wars between venues

The early gold rush could create a short-term bust for operators who prioritised speed over sustainability.

2. Lack of infrastructure in key regions

While padel is booming in Europe and the Middle East, the US — the world’s largest sports market — has been slower to catch on.

Why?

Limited awareness
Competing racket sports (pickleball is huge)
Real estate constraints (Padel courts need more vertical space than pickleball)

Unless the US market picks up significantly, padel may struggle to hit a truly global scale. The Olympic dream depends heavily on breaking into America.

3. Short attention spans and trend fatigue

Padel has benefitted from being fun, social, and viral. But those same traits can also be fragile.

We’ve seen it before with sports like:

Squash: once poised for Olympic inclusion, now a niche sport
Pickleball: booming now, but facing similar questions about long-term retention

If padel doesn’t build deeper competitive structures, youth pathways, and cultural stickiness, casual interest could fade.

4. Regulatory or political challenges

In some countries, padel court construction is facing pushback due to:

Noise complaints from nearby residents
Zoning restrictions in urban areas
Land-use concerns in public parks

This could slow growth in dense cities — especially where real estate is already tight.

5. Failure to land Olympic status

We’ve mentioned it before — Olympic inclusion is a major credibility driver.

If Padel misses out on Brisbane 2032, that would be a reputational setback. It won’t kill the sport, but it could limit global funding, national federation support, and visibility in developing markets.

Bottom line:
Padel has serious potential — but only if it’s built properly.
If operators and investors treat it like a long-term sport (not just a short-term trend), it will thrive. If not, it risks becoming another “remember when that was everywhere?” moment.

Final Verdict: Is Now the Time to Get In?

Here’s the short answer:
Yes — if you’re smart about it.

Padel isn’t a passing fad. The numbers are up, the interest is real, and the infrastructure is being built. It’s already a major sport in parts of Europe and the Middle East — and it’s knocking on the door of global legitimacy, with Olympic inclusion on the horizon.

But like any boom, timing matters. And so does how you get involved.

If you’re an investor:

Look for solid operators, not just fast ones.
The clubs that will win long-term are the ones building community, recurring revenue, and standout experiences — not just cramming four courts into a warehouse and hoping people show up.

Ask:

Does this venue have a brand, or just a booking app?
Is the management thinking about coaching, retail, media, and events?
Is it adaptable if demand shifts or grows?

If you’re a property developer:

Padel can increase footfall, brand value, and revenue — but only in the right context.
It works well in:

High-end residential developments
Lifestyle-focused commercial spaces
Hospitality environments (resorts, hotels, beach clubs)

Just make sure the experience matches the location. Slapping two courts behind a shopping centre won’t cut it in five years.

If you’re a brand:

There’s room to own part of the culture.
The smart brands will enter padel the way Red Bull entered extreme sports — not just sponsoring, but shaping the experience. That could mean:

Custom gear
Co-branded events
Creator collaborations
League partnerships

If you’re just curious:

Play.
Try a session. Join a club. See what it feels like.
The sport is still forming its identity — and whether you’re a future player, coach, entrepreneur or fan, the best way to understand it is to get on court.

So… how big is padel going to be?

Big.
In 2 years: Explosive growth.
In 5 years: Commercial maturity.
In 10 years: Olympic-level sport — or a smartly scaled global game with deep regional dominance.

It won’t be everything. But it’ll be something. And the window to get involved while it’s still forming?
That’s right now.